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Dynamic necking instability, occurring in metallic casings subjected to dynamic expansion and leading to subsequent fragmentation, is an intrinsic random process. Nonetheless, theoretical modeling of necking instability is usually based on deterministic approaches. This work aims at pursuing the developments presented in El Maï et al. (2014), based on the Linear Stability Analysis applied to the development of the instabilities in a round bar in dynamic extension, by analyzing the statistics of the proposed cross-section fluctuations in the bar and by comparing the analytical results with experimental neck spacing distributions in expanding rings based on Zhang and Ravi-Chandar (2006). It is shown that this approach leads to satisfactory spacing distributions and average number of necks for different loading velocities.
